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."I've barely shopped yet, but this is average for me," she said. "I'm avoiding shopping today."Once, the day after Thanksgiving was the busiest shopping day of the year and was closely watched as a barometer for the holiday season. But apparent shifts in holiday buying patterns are making the snapshot look at the day after Thanksgiving a less accurate indicator.Many retailers are finding that more shoppers are either buying earlier or later in the season, making it more difficult for them to plan their sales strategy for the allimportant holiday months.Executives at Filene's Basement note that some of their customers have become even earlier birds. "A portion of our December business has moved into November and October," said Samuel J. Gerson, chief executive of Filene's Basement.And because of late shoppers, the day after Thanksgiving was only the fifth busiest sales day of 1996, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, which tracks sales.Last year, some of the busiest holiday shopping fell on the two weekends before Christmas, said the group, which predicts 1997 holiday sales will be up a solid, but hardly spectacular, 4.5 percent, a number in line with most forecasts.Some consumers are shopping days and even weeks before Thanksgiving.One such shopper is Gregory Buchholz, 45, of Laconia, N.H. A supervisor at a firm that makes wooden parts for furniture and toy companies, he shops for holiday gifts all year, then sometimes books a hotel room for the day after Thanksgiving, hopefully to finish off his shopping. Page 209In past years, holiday shopping safaris have brought him to New York and Manchester, N.H. This year he availed himself of a holiday shopper package at the Westin Hotel in Boston, which is linked by sky bridges to two malls near Copley Square."It's great," Buchholz said. "You don't even have to put a coat on. And you can relax. You don't have to start the season with a snarl."If all consumers shopped as methodically as Buchholz, retailers could confidently plan on how much merchandise to stock on their shelves. They could confidently schedule their promotional events. And they could rake in big profits.But it is the lastminute shopper who can throw off retailers' plans the man who rushes into a department store on Christmas Eve to buy his wife perfume and lingerie, the two hardy perennials of lastminute giftgiving.Lastminute shoppers aren't the retailer's only concern. Some consumers are opting to spend their money on vacations and fancy restaurants rather than on traditional gifts.And still others, perhaps laden with creditcard debt, vow to be more frugal. As a result, most analysts expect this to be only a solid holiday despite a booming economy.Clearly a big Thanksgiving weekend doesn't necessarily bode well for worried retailers that have much at stake, with some raking in as much as 25 percent of their annual sales in November and December.In 1996, for example, sales for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday after Thanksgiving were up a spectacular 11.9 percent over the previous year, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported.Then '96 sales dipped sharply before rallying in the last week before Christmas. Overall sales for the '96 holiday season were up only 4 percent, the council said, and other surveys found sales growth was even less.Among early shoppers are parents of small children. Hot toys, such as last year's Tickle Me Elmo, sold out early, and many parents have been broken of their lastminute habits."I was out at 5 a.m., visiting some malls in northern New Jersey," said John Konarski III, a vice president for the shopping center Page 210group. "There were already long lines to get in to some of the toy stores. Everybody was out today looking for Sing & Snore Ernie."At the KB Toy Store in the Natick Mall, the staff seemed overwhelmed, reported Jo Bevala, a retired Needham grandmother."They could use 10 or 15 more people," she said.Among those out looking for bargains yesterday was Joanne Montenero, 46, a mother of four grown children from Windham, N.H. Her trip to the Burlington Mall was as much a reconnaissance mission as a shopping expedition.No matter how early she starts checking out the malls, she doesn't finish her shopping until Christmas Eve, she said.Such lastminute shoppers can throw retailers into a panic. When it's midDecember and shoppers are still browsing rather than buying, retailers slash prices, which cut into profits.Looking to avoid a repeat performance of some previous years, retailers are keeping inventories low. And many began offering sales in early November to get shoppers into stores and to persuade them to start buying, Konarski said."We've seen very early promotions," he said
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